Prospective Resources Assessments
DeGolyer and MacNaughton is an industry leader in the evaluation of prospective resources. D&M’s experience in the valuation of prospective resources is recognized by large international exploration firms, national oil companies and financial institutions. It has quantified the values and the geologic and/or economic chance factors and volumetric uncertainties associated with the probabilistic estimation of thousands of potential hydrocarbon volumes in more than 100 countries. These analyses have varied in scope from large portfolio-level appraisals encompassing many countries and basins to volumetric estimates of prospects in one license block. Moreover, the firm has made presentations and seminars to explorationists, national oil companies, and investors around the world.
Critical to these types of analyses is the objective quantification of the various geologic chance factors (trap, reservoir, migration, and source) and range of volumetric uncertainty. Moreover, an understanding of the engineering and economic chance factors is crucial to developing an integrated analysis that is consistent with the PRMS and NI 51-101 guidelines.
D&M evaluates prospective resources using a fully integrated, probabilistic methodology that begins with a rigorous, independent review of technical data and analogous fields. Potential production profiles associated with each prospective resource are subsequently generated through D&M’s proprietary software SYPHER following probabilistic volumetric analysis. Economic modeling of each prospective reservoir incorporates various economic factors and development practices based on the potential probabilistic resource quantities estimated. Beyond the relevant fiscal regime and binding contracts, these economic factors include:
- Operating expense (OPEX)
- Capital expense (CAPEX)
- Potential production profiles
- Depreciation/time value of money
- Field life
- Development well costs
- Development timing
- Abandonment costs
Furthermore, the firm’s experience with global reserves and prospective resources supports its ability to offer development planning and production cost estimates.